Minister of Finance Lunch with Hon Nicola Willis (Auckland Business Chamber)

Minister of Finance Lunch with Hon Nicola Willis (Auckland Business Chamber)

Stepped in for Simon Bridges** today at the Auckland Business Chamber’s packed-out post-Budget lunch hosted by Recorp NZ and supported by Kiwibank. It was a great opportunity to hear directly from Finance Minister Hon Nicola Willis MP, just days after delivering her second Budget.

Minister Willis walked us through the “growth budget”, outlining her focus on stimulating business investment, attracting international capital, and maintaining fiscal discipline in uncertain times. Unsurprisingly, the Investment Boost tax incentive drew a lot of interest.

While there was speculation around changes to depreciation, no one expected the accelerated depreciation in the Budget to be as generous as it was. When I asked the Minister why it was set at 20%, she said it was deliberately chosen as the “sweet spot” for “maximum bang for buck” – bold enough to spark confidence, without blowing the books.

Thanks to CEO Bruce Parton for hosting us at Recorp’s highly automated facility, and for leading the charge to replace single-use plastic bottles with infinitely recyclable aluminium cans.

(**Simon Bridges is currently 17,000km away leading a business delegation to Eastern Europe. And since no Auckland Business Chamber event feels complete without a comment on his impressive beard, I took the liberty of declaring that, for one day only, the Auckland Business Chamber was clean-shaven!)

AI levelling the investment field

Artificial intelligence is fast becoming one of the most powerful forces reshaping global finance.

At the annual Asian Financial Forum held earlier this year in Hong Kong, leading industry voices painted a picture of a very near financial future driven by artificial intelligence (AI), where algorithms are rapidly surpassing humans not just in speed, but in the capacity to analyse, synthesise and act on data.

“Generative AI is the single most disruptive technology that we have ever experienced in human history,” said Sinovation Ventures chair and AI expert Dr Kai-Fu Lee.

“We now have AI thinking better and faster than people most of the time for most tasks.”

Lee argued that this shift is not limited to trading desks or research teams, but that every department in a financial firm should be incorporating AI tools.

He pointed out that the number-centric nature of finance makes it especially conducive to fast, scalable deployment of AI.

“You can’t use AI to make a car instantly, but in the financial industry you are not shipping physical goods, you’re dealing with numbers.”

Lee, formerly the head of Google China, isn’t talking about a hypothetical future.

He cited an AI-enhanced market index fund backed by his venture capital (VC) firm, which allows only AI to buy and sell stocks – humans are excluded from the process entirely. He said the fund outperforms the market index by around 30% each year.

High-Flyer Capital Management, a Chinese hedge fund founded in 2016, gained attention for using machine learning to identify mispriced stocks and time trades.

Its funds have returned 151% in total (or around 13% annualised) since 2017 – a standout performance amid a volatile China market. Regulatory changes in 2024 forced the closure of its market-neutral funds, but High-Flyer’s successes continue to influence a new wave of AI-led investment innovation.

Lee described the global AI race as a tale of two superpowers: the US, leading on groundbreaking research through its culture of innovation and strength in fundamental science, and China, excelling in the practical implementation of user-facing applications.

“WeChat is better than WhatsApp. TikTok is better than Instagram,” he noted. “Chinese teams have figured out how to find product–market fit globally.”

China’s fintech firms, in particular, have been early adopters of large language model (LLMs) like DeepSeek, which received attention earlier this year for claiming performance comparable to OpenAI’s GPT-4 at a significantly lower training cost.

Lee’s message to a room full of finance professionals was direct: if your firm is not integrating AI into research, trading and operations today, it is already falling behind.

“AI should be doing most of the writing. AI should be doing most of the reading. I use AI to read all my news … to ask what the top news are today, or what are three stocks I should buy or sell,” he said.

AI removes one of the most common pitfalls for investors: emotion. Tools now allow for real-time sentiment tracking and automated triggers based on logic and data.

But not every role will disappear. Lee sees long-term investing, M&A (mergers and acquisitions) and relationship-based advice remaining human-led. What’s at risk are roles driven by short-term analysis and repeatable decision-making.

“Computer trading replaced floor traders. AI trading will replace a lot of traders today,” he says.

“So now would be a good time for people in the financial industry to upgrade their skills. Otherwise, their job will simply be replaced.”

He suggested financial services firms consider appointing a chief AI officer: someone who understands the technology deeply and can lead transformation across departments, from legal and HR to asset management.

Democratising financial access
AI has already been embedded across the capital markets landscape, with large and small financial institutions using AI not just to assist human analysts, but to automate decision-making at scale. It is powering everything from trade execution and risk modelling to real-time sentiment tracking, portfolio optimisation and fraud detection.

But Lee says this is only just the beginning.

Until recently, building sophisticated AI models required hundreds of millions of dollars in computing power. Now, models are being trained for a fraction of that cost, enabling a much broader range of financial firms to implement AI technologies.

“AI will be made available to everyone – the world will be able to build applications on top,” said Lee.

For everyday investors, this level of access may prove to be one of the most transformative aspects of AI in finance. Previously, obtaining high-quality investment advice and in-depth data analysis meant relying on costly human advisers or institutional-grade tools that were beyond the reach of most individuals.

With AI-powered market analysis assistants emerging to bridge that gap, users will be able to query the markets in plain language, analyse stock trends in real time and receive suggestions tailored to their investment preferences.

Ultimately, it is expected that these assistants will offer tailored guidance to an individual’s specific profile, factoring in things like risk tolerance and income level, but also personal values and unique financial goals.

In some markets, AI regulators have already approved AI platforms for public use. But as these tools begin offering recommendations that resemble traditional financial advice, they raise important regulatory questions around licensing, disclosure, complaint processes and duty-of-care obligations.

Financial regulators around the world are looking at how to address these issues. With the right policy and regulatory frameworks in place, AI could help democratise investing, making smart, data-driven decisions accessible to all, not just the already wealthy.

– Tim McCready was a guest of the Asian Financial Forum

 

Capital Markets: WNT Ventures launches fourth fund, targets deep tech growth (NZ Herald)

Capital Markets: WNT Ventures launches fourth fund, targets deep tech growth (NZ Herald)

WNT Ventures has become one of New Zealand’s most enduring early-stage deep-tech investors.

Ten years since its launch, the firm has begun deploying capital from its fourth fund, a rare milestone in New Zealand’s venture capital (VC) landscape.

“We’re very excited about our fourth fund,” says Maria Jose Alvarez, WNT Ventures’ managing partner. “Only two other funds are at a fourth vintage or more – Movac and Icehouse. That puts us among the few who’ve seen the full life cycle of a fund.”

WNT’s track record backs that longevity. Its first fund delivered a net annual return of around 20%, with all investor capital returned and more upside expected. Fund 2 is tracking even higher at 25%. Launched last month, WNT’s latest fund is targeting $35-$40 million, building on its commitment to backing early-stage deep tech ventures. Its bigger size will allow for larger investments and more meaningful follow-on support.

“Looking back at our first fund, our very first investment was $150k into a company. At the time, it was a big deal – it helped them go from a benchtop lab to something slightly larger,” Alvarez says. “Today, our typical investment is between $1.2 million and $1.5 million; $150k just doesn’t move the needle anymore.”

Alvarez notes that while New Zealand start-ups have traditionally been capital-efficient, WNT is now better positioned to provide meaningful backing at an early stage and to double down on the companies that are performing strongly, with follow-on investment. The increased capital also allows WNT to more consistently support capital-intensive phases, such as pilot plants or prototyping, often critical for commercialising scientific IP.

Experience through cycles
WNT’s decade of activity means it has seen the market at both its peaks and troughs. That context is proving valuable in the current economic climate.

“We’ve lived through economic hardship before,” Alvarez says. “What matters now is helping our founders navigate it – encouraging capital discipline and building businesses that can withstand pressure.”

That discipline has earned WNT lasting credibility with its investors.

“We’ve been consistently returning capital for seven years, regardless of the economy,” says Alvarez. “But now more than ever, founders need to understand what’s expected. If you’re raising capital, you need to hit your milestones – otherwise the whole system comes under pressure.”

Strategic focus and trends
WNT remains broadly generalist in its tech investments, though Alvarez says the fund has clear boundaries.

“We avoid drug development, basic diagnostics and now – given the hype – the benchmark for AI [artificial intelligence] investment is much higher,” she says. “That said, we’ve backed companies with core AI capabilities before, in 2019 and 2021, because they were ahead of the curve.”

Alvarez sees waves of innovation shaping New Zealand’s start-up ecosystem. “A few years ago, everyone seemed to be working on sensors. Now the big focus is decarbonisation: things like biomanufacturing, precision fermentation, synthetic biology and manufacturing.”

These sectors are addressing urgent commercial challenges, including supply chain resilience and cost efficiency, while also delivering major emissions-reduction potential.

But Alvarez cautions against chasing buzzwords. “Last year there was hype around climate. Now, ‘climate tech’ is thrown around left, right and centre. But climate as a label will only get you so far. You still need to solve a real problem.”

WNT’s new fund has already made its first investment, into Captivate Technologies, which develops carbon-capture technology.

“The company already has a lot of commercial and pilot agreements in place, which for early stage deep tech is quite rare. So we were really excited about seeing the clarity in the value proposition.”

She says WNT is particularly interested in companies operating in overlooked but essential sectors.

“I like some of the innovation we’re seeing in ‘boring’ areas like instrumentation and manufacturing. These are consistent sectors with real, persistent pain points, which are always sought after, regardless of economic conditions.”

Although not actively investing in AI, Alvarez says the technology has become a critical internal tool for both founders and investors.

“It’s always in the background, helping assess competitors, test positioning, identify market opportunities. When used well, it sharpens thinking across the board.”

Attracting better talent
While capital is critical, Alvarez says talent remains one of the biggest constraints to growth.

“The main problem isn’t building companies, it’s having the talent to support and scale them. Recruiting experienced technical teams and seasoned management is becoming increasingly difficult.”

This is where she sees an opportunity for the Government to step up. “It’s great to see initiatives like the Active Investor Plus visa – that has been outstanding for us in terms of attracting capital and global connections,” Alvarez says.

“Our third fund launched during Covid, so we didn’t raise offshore at the time. But since then we’ve built strong relationships in the US, Germany, and Hong Kong. These markets have proven to be really valuable for us.”

But Alvarez says more could be done to make New Zealand’s innovation ecosystem sustainable.

“We need a more integrated approach, starting from early education and continuing through university and PhD pathways. At the same time, we also need to support entrepreneurs who might not fit the traditional VC model,” she says.

As WNT enters its second decade, Alvarez says the firm’s focus remains unchanged: finding the right team, working on the right problem, at the right time.

“New Zealand has all the ingredients to build globally competitive deep-tech companies,” she says. “With aligned capital, talent, and support, we can go from clever ideas to real, scalable impact.”

An unexpected journey - 15 years with the Leadership Network

Tim McCready joined the Leadership Network in 2010, but his journey truly took flight two years later—in the unexpected setting of Vladivostok. That visit became the catalyst for a series of adventures: driving across Russia, travelling to Myanmar through the Foundation’s Young Business Leaders Initiative, working across Southeast Asia, and emerging as a respected voice on trade and geopolitics. In March, now 15 years into his involvement with the network, Tim shared his inspirational story at a meeting of the Foundation’s Honorary Advisers, reflecting on how the network has helped shape his life and career. What follows is the speech he delivered at that gathering.

We’ve all had moments in life that felt ordinary at the time, just another day. But looking back, you realise that moment put you on a completely different path.

For me, that moment happened in one of the last places I ever expected. But more on that in a moment.

I’ve been part of the Asia New Zealand Foundation’s Leadership Network since 2010. That involvement has given me incredible experiences: exploring Asia’s business and culture, connecting with thought leaders and future leaders, and serving as Chair of the Leadership Network advisory group.

My career has been varied. I’ve:

  • helped startups raise capital.
  • supported multinationals entering New Zealand.
  • worked with many different government agencies on strategy.
  • spent considerable time in Southeast Asia helping businesses understand regional opportunities.
  • written on trade and geopolitics for the New Zealand Herald, and emceed many of New Zealand’s highest-profile business summits.

At the heart of it, my work sits at the intersection of business, trade, and investment, helping the public and private sectors navigate an increasingly complex world.

I don’t share this to list achievements, but to show how central the Asia New Zealand Foundation has been to all of it.

And, somewhat unexpectedly, it all started not in China, Japan, or Singapore. But somewhere we don’t often think about as even being in Asia – Vladivostok, in the far east of Russia.

People often say New Zealand sits at the edge of the world. In my opinion, that edge is Vladivostok.

Remote and bordered by North Korea and China, just across the sea from Japan, it’s one of the most distant major cities from its own capital, both in geography and influence. The Asian influence there is unmistakable, shaping the city in ways that make it feel a world away from Moscow.

In 2012, the Asia New Zealand Foundation advertised an opportunity for Leadership Network members to attend APEC in Vladivostok, as part of the Voices of the Future delegation.

I think that is the one and only time the Foundation has sent anyone to Russia.

At the time, I was working for NZTE in London, leading its European investment activity. I thought I had a solid understanding of international business and trade. But suddenly I was at one of the most high-profile economic summits in the world, and it shifted everything I thought I knew.

Many of the people here tonight have attended multiple APEC summits, helping shape trade agreements and international policy and dialogue. But for me at the time, it was all new.

Let me take you back to 2012:

John Key was New Zealand’s Prime Minister. Hu Jintao was in his final few months as President of China.

Psy’s Gangnam Style was spreading around the world, introducing a new generation to K-pop

President Barack Obama was in full campaign mode ahead of the Presidential election where he was up against Mitt Romney, and because of that Hillary Clinton (as Secretary of State) delivered the US address at APEC in his place.

One of Prime Minister John Key’s top priorities while he was in Russia was to progress a Free Trade Agreement with Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan.

As we now know, that didn’t eventuate. After Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the FTA never progressed.

I caught up with John Key just before his meeting with Putin. We talked about the upcoming meeting, and he admitted he was a little nervous.

And that conversation taught me that trade deals aren’t just about economics.

They’re about geopolitics. They’re about relationships. They’re about the personalities of world leaders. And in many ways, we are seeing that play out now more than ever.

That experience at APEC seemed to set off a chain reaction that shaped the rest of my career.

While at APEC, I found myself in conversation with a group of business leaders and journalists, including one from the New Zealand Herald. At one point during the conversation, she turned to me and said, ‘You should write about that.’

I hadn’t considered it before. But the idea stuck. So, I gave it a go.

And since then, alongside my other work commitments, I’ve been writing on trade, investment, and international affairs, always with a strong focus on Asia.

That led to regular commentary on TV and radio, and the chance to moderate and emcee major business events both in New Zealand and also internationally.

And, eventually, attending APEC in 2012 led me to what I feel is the ultimate full-circle moment.

Fast forward to 2021, and it was New Zealand’s turn to host APEC.

This time, I wasn’t in the audience, I was curating the content for the CEO Summit – including facilitating some of the discussions that took place on stage.

The lineup included Angela Merkel, Amal Clooney, the chair of Tesla Robyn Denholm and other top business and political figures from across APEC economies.

The shift from being an audience member in Vladivostok to helping shape the dialogue on a global stage started with one opportunity when the Asia New Zealand Foundation called for applications to attend APEC.

Of course, many of you will remember that 2021 didn’t turn out to be the APEC New Zealand had hoped for. COVID had other plans. While Auckland was under heavy COVID restrictions, I was on the main stage of Auckland’s Aotea Centre, overseeing the live broadcast to a global audience.

Despite the challenges, it was a huge success and remains one of the most surreal and rewarding moments of my career.

But the Foundation hasn’t just shaped my career. It has changed how I see the world.

One of the Russian delegates at the Voices of the Future Programme at APEC in Russia – Igor – became a good friend. He visited New Zealand, we did a bit of a road trip around the country. I half-joked that we should do something similar in Russia and drive across it. He said absolutely no way – “that would be a terrible idea!”

But twelve months later, I had convinced him to do it, and I was back in Russia. Not for a summit. Not for work. But to drive across the country with Igor and another New Zealand friend of mine, in a Toyota Prius I bought in Japan and had shipped to Vladivostok.

Over five weeks, we drove 15,000km from Vladivostok to St Petersburg. Along the borders of China, Mongolia, and Kazakhstan, meeting people and seeing the country in a way no conference could ever show me.

That’s something that has stuck with me whenever I travel to Asia.

You cannot understand a country, its economy, its culture, its opportunities, just by reading reports or sitting in meeting rooms. You have to be there, on the ground.

Another important thing I wanted to highlight is that none of what I have done would have been possible without the networks I have built.

I didn’t have a strong network starting out. The Foundation gave me my first connections. It put me in rooms I never thought I’d be in and introduced me to amazing people.

A few years after my time at APEC, I travelled to Myanmar with the Foundation as part of the Young Business Leaders Initiative to connect with emerging leaders across Southeast Asia.

At the time, Myanmar was at a turning point, opening up and attempting to transition from military rule to democracy.

It felt like a nation on the brink of something new. The people I met there weren’t just interested in business, they were thinking about what Myanmar’s future could be, what role they could play in shaping it, and how we could all work together to connect Myanmar with the world.

Sadly, things have changed for Myanmar since then.

But here’s the thing: those relationships didn’t disappear.

The friendships I made in Yangon (Myanmar’s largest city) remain. Some of those people are now close friends. Some I’ve since worked with on trade opportunities between New Zealand and Southeast Asia.

Even in uncertainty, relationships endure.

That’s why I’m so grateful to the Foundation and to all those who support it. Because of your work, people like me have been able to build careers, networks, and perspectives that wouldn’t have otherwise existed.

So no, Vladivostok 2012 wasn’t a defining moment for New Zealand-Russia relations. It wasn’t even particularly a defining event for global trade.

But it was a defining moment for me.

It opened doors I didn’t know existed. It changed how I see business. And it led me to opportunities that transformed my life.

That’s the power of the Asia New Zealand Foundation.

And as Asia’s importance to New Zealand continues to grow, the Foundation’s work has never been more vital.

To everyone who contributes to that mission: thank you. You’re not just shaping an organisation. You’re shaping the future of so many people’s lives.