Project Auckland: Partnerships for growth (NZ Herald)

Tim McCready talks Auckland, infrastructure, and Chinese investment with ICBC NZ chief executive Karen Hou.

You have been living in Auckland for a while now. How do you see its future?

Auckland is a beautiful, attractive city. I have been living here now for three years, and every year it becomes even better. There are signs of growth everywhere.

I have lived and worked in a lot of cities around the world, but Auckland stands out because although the city is relatively expansive and feels big, the actual population is very low.

This, combined with Auckland’s beautiful weather, climate, scenery and multi-cultural population makes it a wonderful place to live.

However, increasingly Auckland’s infrastructure is lacking. As Auckland has grown in population the infrastructure hasn’t kept up.

Auckland Council has tried very hard to meet people’s requirements. They have big plans to make the city more usable.

More apartments, hotels, transportation links and other infrastructure projects are underway.

As one example, the New Zealand International Convention Centre (NZICC) will greatly improve Auckland’s capacity to host world class conferences and exhibitions, which will provide yet another reason to attract people from all over the world.

But the key challenge is making sure the required infrastructure developments happen to ensure the city continues to remain as great as it is now into the future.

The new Finance Minister Grant Robertson is looking to the private sector to finance major transport and housing projects in Auckland.

Do you see an opportunity for Chinese investment?

For Auckland, the government or local government can’t possibly fund everything that is needed. For New Zealand to quickly see results from infrastructure projects, it will be important to use public-private partnerships (PPPs) to bring in significant investment alongside the funds of the government.

ICBC NZ has been shortlisted several times for recent infrastructure syndication loan tenders, and although we are yet to secure a successful deal, our team has become increasingly experienced in the local market.

It takes a lot of time and effort to prepare a bid, but our commitment to this shows our dedication to being involved in successful infrastructure project finance here.

Chinese investment presents a lot of opportunity for Auckland. Over the past few years, China has very quickly developed its infrastructure – in areas like energy, telecommunications and water, but also massive transportation projects that link the country together.

Where local enterprises in New Zealand are struggling to meet the infrastructure shortage, Chinese companies can help them to increase capital, access high quality materials, and reduce cost.

Are Public Private Partnerships popular in China?

Yes, one of the most popular PPP models used in China for delivering major infrastructure projects is called a BOT (build, operate, transfer). With this model, the government uses the private sector to design, build and run an infrastructure project. After a period of time the asset is transferred back to the government.

This structure relies on the private sector, but the government supports the private sector to help with regulatory hurdles and ensuring the repayment of the investment makes the project worthwhile.

As an example, when establishing a subway: the cost is designed from the outset, including how to repay the investment.

If there is not enough money to repay the investment through the subway alone, the government can help by using other developments associated with the subway – such as the related commercial areas – to go towards the repayment of the project.

That way, getting resources for infrastructure projects is easier because the risk of repayment is lowered.

Is ICBC’s client base actively looking to do deals here?

Yes. We have already helped Chinese companies come to New Zealand and understand the bidding process for projects. Although there have not been many successful bids, our Chinese customers are increasingly seeking out opportunities here.

ICBC is the largest bank in the world, and works with the best companies. This means we are able to ensure the highest standard of Chinese companies enter the market to help with infrastructure projects.

We have now been operating in New Zealand for four years. Over this time, we have progressed significantly – we have more than NZ$1.5b of assets in this market – mostly to local customers.

We’ve introduced new technologies and products such as an e-commerce platform to make it easier for New Zealand export companies to do business in China, and we help local companies connect with companies in China.

We also introduced a dual currency credit card, which can be used locally for New Zealand dollar transactions as well as in renminbi while in China, making visiting China more convenient. ICBC hopes that we can continue to increase the links between the two countries.

What can Auckland learn from China in terms of our mounting infrastructure projects?

China’s Government plays an important role in the country’s infrastructure. The government considers the future of the country, makes plans, and ensures projects are delivered quickly.

What people may not realise is that China has become very strong in construction, operating at an interna tional standard. As an example, Chinese companies have played a role in construction projects for the Singapore and Hong Kong subway.

To strengthen the local construction capability here, we need more labour and a lower cost of materials.

The use of Chinese companies can make the cost relatively lower than others due to labour, scale, and the cost of materials. At the same time, Chinese technology, management and safety are world-leading.

Should New Zealand take greater advantage of the skilled labour that China can provide?

Nearly everyone in the world wants to immigrate to New Zealand – for the reasons I outlined earlier.

This provides New Zealand with the rare opportunity to identify the particular skills that are most needed here, and get the right people to match.

For this reason, access to labour should not be a problem in this country. Rather than constricting the volume of people that can come and live here, New Zealand should look towards implementing a policy that will select the people that are needed.

The use of short-term and special visas can bring skilled workers in that can help with construction.

This type of visa is really helpful to fill the labour shortages and rapidly advance infrastructure projects.

China has some great inter-city transportation links, such as the line between Beijing and Tianjin that has cut travel time from three hours to around 30 minutes. Do you think Auckland can learn anything from this?

I think that in the long term, it will be good for New Zealand to be more evenly developed, and not just focused on one or two major cities.

Imagine if there was a high-speed train connecting Auckland and Hamilton – or other satellite cities. A short commute between the two cities would encourage people to spread out further, and reduce the housing, transport, and other infrastructure pressures that Auckland currently faces.

Many cities in China have – or are introducing – high speed rail networks to link them to neighbouring cities. Working with China can give access to not only capital and cost advantages, but also to innovation and experience in projects like these.

Project Auckland: Running the ruler over Auckland Mayor Phil Goff (NZ Herald)

It’s just over one year since Phil Goff became Mayor of Auckland after a stellar three decades long career in national politics. Tim McCready asked business leaders to rate how Goff is handling the job.

Heather Ash, Partner, Simpson Grierson: Overall the council is making good progress under Phil Goff’s leadership. My sense is he is working well with council officers and has a good structure around him.

In particular, the proposal for a regional fuel tax is a significant step forward, given the restrictions that local authorities face around alternative funding mechanisms.

Funding, or lack of, is the biggest constraint for the council. Mayor Goff understands the importance of investing in infrastructure – transport, water, etc – for unlocking issues like the housing shortage. New solutions will be needed to help pay for this investment.

A stronger relationship with Wellington will help create solutions for these strategic challenges. The dynamic on this front seems, as expected, to be in good shape. The new Government has a positive attitude to working with local government.

A big issue for the mayor, and council generally, is winning hearts and minds in the community. Progressing the big issues for the city, delivering a great service and keeping control of costs and rates is a major challenge.

For local government, managing the entire Auckland region post-amalgamation is challenging because people’s expectations on what councils do are very different.

Keeping the focus on the big picture and what’s best for the region will mean that local government (the wider Auckland Council group, including the CCOs) does deliver for the city – in particular making the strategic decisions needed to address challenges around growth, transport, infrastructure and housing.

Auckland is a stunning city geographically and has such great potential. It’s an exciting time to rise to these challenges as well as plan for the America’s Cup and Apec.

Kim Campbell, CEO, EMA: Auckland city is facing major challenges.

By 2036 its population is predicted to rise by almost 750,000. We’re already lagging behind in infrastructure investment by billions and that will only be exacerbated with the intensification allowed for under the Unitary Plan.

Furthermore, there continues to be a disconnect between where people live and work, both now and in the future, that will only add to current congestion woes.

Therefore, the mayor’s relationship with Wellington has been constructive and he has a functioning council. After all, he has been successful in convincing the new Coalition Government of the need for a regional petrol tax.

While we don’t necessarily see the petrol tax as a solution, we do know that transport is a major issue for businesses and residents of Auckland.

Our own research shows that the city loses at least $1.3 billion dollars a year in productivity.

The mayor and council in conjunction with Auckland Transport, the New Zealand Transport Agency and central Government must work in alignment on the how the roading and public transport networks will operate.

We need to address both short-term bottlenecks and long-term congestion issues that the city’s growing population will put increasing pressure on.

The funding mix is crucial, and Auckland business and residential ratepayers cannot be expected to pay more, unless they know what the network looks like and are confident it will reduce or manage congestion.

The cross-city tunnel has yet to have a major contract let and the Auckland Transport Alignment Plan (Atap) is still only a laundry list of projects being considered with no clear governance or pathway to completion.

Local body funding is an issue facing every council. In Auckland city’s case this is about growth.

The population growth and the growing pressure this puts on the infrastructure, housing, moving around the city and so forth, is a matter the mayor and council are only too aware of, I’m sure. Rates alone will never fund the investment required, and the council is limited in how much money it can borrow.

However, public private partnerships, infrastructure bonds or targeted rates (such as a congestion charge) all have a role to play to overcome investing in some of the significant big-ticket items the city faces. We would like to see these options being given more serious consideration.

I know the mayor has recognised the delays and other planning system issues residing within council but we have yet to see real evidence that lead times have reduced.

It has been a solid start but there is a tidal wave of issues including the America’s Cup and Apec which the city needs to be prepared for.

Tony Falkenstein, CEO, Just Water: The first year has been an opportunity to judge Phil Goff as a leader, and he has failed to lead. He is managing, but not leading this city.

If he was a business leader, taking on a company that was spending more than it was receiving, this would have been the first port of call to get those costs under control.

Something is wrong with the budget process when the mayor “was surprised” and did not realise that the number of executives earning over $200,000 had increased by 25 per cent in the past year.

Either the mayor isn’t getting meaningful information or the CEO is incompetent. Both of them, plus all councillors, should have been all over the staff salaries to see what could have been cut to get the foundation of the council in order.

This is the council’s largest expense, with a new mayor the staff would have been expecting change, and it didn’t happen.

People want to see “leaders” and the inaction over the first year has been disappointing, and a wasted opportunity. I do not see it happening under Phil Goff, as much as I like him as a person.

All we have seen are meaningless cuts, which have done so much to harm our city. If he had been able to reduce only five of the overpaid executives, it would mean our prestigious Art Gallery would not have to consider closing on one or more days a week.

There have been many of these pitiful cuts, which have been overall so small as a percentage of council spending, but so large in terms of those affected.

The mayor can talk about visions of the future, but a vision without a plan is just a dream.

Get the foundation right first, get rid of the shareholdings in the port and the airport, establish private/public partnerships for long term funding opportunities, and most of all get the organisation structure right to match the costs with income.

Graeme Stephens, CEO, SkyCity: I have had a number of positive interactions with Phil Goff and have found him to be highly energised, interested and engaged.

When it comes to translating some aspects of our discussions into action I think his team hits up against the somewhat cumbersome bureaucracy and the silos which dictate decision making in Auckland. The long process to get things done must be as frustrating for him as it can be for us.

Investment in infrastructure, transport and tourism are critical to ensure Auckland keeps pace with regional competitors.

Equally as important, however, is addressing the pressing issue of those with genuine social and financial needs that are not being met under the current system, particularly the homeless.

As a large ratepayer with a big footprint in the Auckland CBD, the decisions council makes strongly impact our business.

The disruption we’re seeing to the roading network is hurting us, as it is hurting many inner-city businesses, but we accept it is critical if we want a vibrant, competitive city in the future.

The council’s vision for a network of laneways, shared spaces and green corridors is also positive, and will ensure the city evolves and responds to community and business priorities.

Homelessness is an issue which requires partnerships from central government, local government, businesses and communities if any meaningful progress is to be made.

Following conversations with the mayor, SkyCity is considering how we can contribute.

Though it does feel as if the city is gaining momentum, with the CRL construction going ahead and the announcement of a regional fuel tax to fund projects like light rail connection between the CBD and the airport, there is still much more that needs to be done, and SkyCity is keen to play a part wherever possible.

Auckland needs major events to stimulate the local economy and promote the city. The New Zealand International Convention Centre will play a role, and SkyCity can and will do more, but the America’s Cup provides the mayor and council an enviable platform to cement Auckland’s place as a global city, for major events, leisure and business tourism, and investment.

Making sure this event is a huge success is critical.

 

Dynamic Business: Air New Zealand, Excellence in Governance (NZ Herald)

Air New Zealand has taken out the MinterEllisonRuddWatts Excellence in Governance award in 2017 in recognition of the company’s world-class track record and its emphasis on broad stakeholder management.

Air NZ has consistently been recognised for its excellence in governance — this is the company’s third appearance in this category at the Deloitte Top 200 awards.

Of particular note, is the seamless way in which the airline has managed board and CEO transitions through its robust succession planning processes.

Since the Government-backed recapitalisation of the national carrier in 2001, it has had just two chairmen: John Palmer (appointed in November 2001) and Tony Carter (appointed in December 2010).

In that time there have been three chief executives: Sir Ralph Norris — who came off the board in February 2002 to pilot Air NZ through a major rebuild following a near bankruptcy; Rob Fyfe — who brought marketing pizzazz to the role when he took up the CEO reins in 2005 following Norris’ move to Australia to become chief executive of Commonwealth Bank; and, Christopher Luxon, who became chief executive in early 2013 introducing a global management style to the airline.

Both Fyfe and Luxon were internal appointments who were thoroughly blooded by their predecessors before stepping up to the top job.

In September, former Prime Minister and Tourism Minister Sir John Key joined Carter and fellow members Jan Dawson (deputy chairman), Rob Jager, Linda Jenkinson, Jonathan Mason and Dame Therese Walsh on the board.

Air New Zealand was recently rated New Zealand’s most reputable company for the second year in a row.

The company has continued to sport outstanding financial results since it was named Company of the Year in the 2014 Deloitte Top 200 awards.

Both Carter (2014) and Luxon (2015) have taken out the top honours, for chairman and chief executive respectively, which is another testament to the company’s overall governance record.

It was recently nominated “Airline of the Year” by leading international aviation website AirlineRatings.com for the fifth consecutive year.

The Deloitte Top 200 judges said New Zealanders’ continued faith in Air NZ was a stellar reflection of the airline’s successful governance and the positive impact it has in the country.

They added: “Air New Zealand does the best job of broad stakeholder management. The company does an excellent job for the shareholders, but beyond that it really thinks about the country.”

Air New Zealand’s concern for its wider stakeholder group is evidenced by the airline’s annual sustainability report.

First published in 2015, this annual report tracks the company’s performance socially, economically and environmentally.

These three pillars are supported by six key focus areas — the airline’s people, the communities it operates within, carbon, nature and science, tourism, and trade and enterprise.

The judges remarked that the sustainability reports were a fantastic resource and said Air New Zealand is considered among the best in the country in this area.

The airline has formed a sustainability advisory panel, which includes British environmentalist Sir Jonathon Porritt, New Zealand entrepreneur and environmentalist Sir Rob Fenwick and US biofuels expert Suzanne Hunt.

The airline industry contributes around 2 to 4 per cent to global greenhouse gas emissions.

As part of the sustainability framework, Air NZ is committed to working closely with key regional stakeholders, collaborating and helping them to develop attractive tourism propositions.

An example of Air New Zealand’s work is in Northland where, with local tourism operators, the council and other stakeholders it created a “Summer of Safety” inflight safety video, which was complemented by other tourism marketing campaigns both in New Zealand and internationally.

The judges also noted that the airline’s board had applied best practice in a number of important areas — including its commitment to creating a diverse and inclusive workforce.

The airline says its workforce reflects its diverse customer base and helps it to better serve their needs.

The company also acknowledges that its diversity helps it to be more innovative, challenging traditional ways of thinking, and introduces fresh perspectives.

Air New Zealand has made strong progress in delivering on its diversity and inclusion objectives, focusing strongly on gender representation and growing the cultural capability and fluency of leaders.

The airline recently achieved 39 per cent female membership on its senior leadership team, and has committed to reaching 40 per cent by 2020.

It has established a women’s network around the country to coach and mentor women throughout the business.

Air New Zealand has also implemented other employee networks, including Young Professionals, Maori and Pacific Islands, Pride (LGBTQI) and an Asian employee network.

These have helped to promote a sense of community and belonging across different employee groups, and increase the visibility and awareness of its diverse workforce.

The judges commended Air New Zealand’s commitment to Maori language and culture.

The airline has placed an increased focus on making this a core part of its identify — reinforcing the company’s role as the national airline of New Zealand.

Air New Zealand provides executive coaching and intensive residential, marae-based workshops for members of the senior leadership team to help them to develop greater Maori fluency. The company has also established Maori ambassadors to promote Maori culture and language among all its employees.

Finalist: Abano Healthcare

Abano Healthcare received high praise from the judges for its successful business model and steadfast focus on growing shareholder returns while fending off disruptive hostile takeover offers.

The Abano board, led by chairman Trevor Janes is focused on growing its trans-Tasman dental group — which is benefiting from economies of scale and increasing market share.

The Top 200 judges were impressed with how the board and shareholders have backed the company, particularly in light of the hostile partial takeover bid from Healthcare Partners.

Janes is joined on the board by Pip Dunphy (deputy chair), Danny Chan, Murray Boyte, Dr Ginni Mansberg and Ted van Arkel.

“The board’s resistance to attempted takeover offers has resulted in shareholders continuing to receive growing returns,” the judges said.

In particular, they were impressed that the company has not been distracted while dealing with attempted takeovers, instead remaining focused on the business and implementing strategy.

They noted the successful transition of Richard Keys into the role of chief executive. Keys was previously the company’s chief operating officer and chief financial officer, and took up the role at the company’s 2015 annual meeting following Alan Clarke’s retirement.

The board undertook a considered process to identify the best and most capable person to fill the role. Under Keys’ leadership, Abano reported a record net profit after tax of $11.1 million for the 2017 financial year, enabling an increase in its full year dividend by 20 per cent on last year.

The judges also commended Abano Healthcare for its recent record dividend of 36 cents per share, and payment of $25 million in dividends over the past five years – an indication on why shareholders continue to back the company.

Finalist: Sanford

Sanford’s recognition as a finalist is the result of the freshness of strategy and a focus on broader considerations beyond the company’s commercial activity.

The directors are acutely aware the company’s future depends on its long-term sustainability. This commitment to rigorous management of environmental performance and sustainability across all areas of the business was commended by the Deloitte Top 200 judges.

They said: “Sanford is clearly transitioning strategy around their footprint and sustainability throughout the business to build a long-term business.”

The Sanford board chaired by independent director Paul Norling includes Liz Coutts, Bruce Goodfellow, Peter Goodfellow, Peter Kean and Rob McLeod.

Sanford has placed strong emphasis on offering meaningful opportunities for continual learning and development, setting a goal to maximise the prospects of all its people.

The company has acknowledged this is not an area that has previously been managed as effectively as it could, and has put in place management systems to make it a priority.

Sanford has made a commitment to improving the wellbeing of its employees, adopting the WorkWell programme developed by Toi Te Ora Public Health to support the development of a healthy working team.

Sanford’s annual report was referred to as “absolutely outstanding” by the judges. It includes a touching story from an employee, who credits turning her family’s health and lifestyle around following a visit to Sanford by a diabetes specialist.

The judges also commend Sanford’s very strong integrated reporting. The company has been recognised by the market for this — providing a balanced picture of their economic, environmental, and social performance; facilitating comparability, benchmarking and assessing performance; and addressing issues of concern to stakeholders

Dynamic Business: The value of seizing the moment (NZ Herald)

The forces and trends that shape the world are not always front of mind when running a business.

But in a world where trends are dramatically changing the way value is created, they form an important backdrop that all company strategy and planning should be considerate of.

Some of the most successful businesses over the past decade have prospered because they have managed to successfully navigate the challenges and opportunities these global forces bring with them.

Andrew Grant, Senior Partner (Asia-Pacific) at McKinsey and Company, says New Zealand is a small, nimble nation with an inherent ability to respond quickly to global forces.

“Over the years we have had many global trends working in our favour, but we’ve failed to respond fast enough to seize the moment and capture the opportunity,” he says.

McKinsey uses the metaphor of a crucible for these forces — “a place or situation in which concentrated forces interact to cause or influence change or development,” and segments these “crucibles” into global growth shifts, accelerating industry disruption, and a new societal deal.

Some, like cybersecurity, geopolitics, and the rapid invasion of technology are already front of mind for executives and the boardroom.

Others, though not so obvious, are just as important to consider.

No one can know for sure what the future will look like. But businesses — both old and new — that grapple with these crucibles and question the assumptions of their business model, can expect to compete more effectively in the increasingly disruptive world we have found ourselves in.

1. Beyond Globalisation

Globalisation as we have known it — and as New Zealand has greatly benefited from — is going to change.

Donald Trump, Brexit, Jeremy Corbyn, TPP: the results of recent elections and referendums worldwide can be attributed to a growing sense of disillusionment, anti-globalisation and protectionism.

Traditional measures of globalisation are also slowing. Trade growth over the past decade has been half of that in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

Following the global financial crisis in 2008-2009, global capital flows as a percentage of GDP dropped dramatically — and have not returned to pre-crisis levels.

Despite this, many argue globalisation has accelerated — but it is taking place in different forms: cross-border data flows are increasing at rates approaching 50 times of those in 2005; the McKinsey Global Institute estimates there are now 914 million social networking users with at least one foreign connection.

The world now has 429 million international travellers, 361 million cross-border e-commerce shoppers, and 244 million people that live outside their home country.

Competing with the increasing number of global players means maintaining a local touch is increasingly important for companies. Rising tension between technology firms in China and the rest of the world is creating a gulf that will be an important factor shaping the future of global tech innovation.

The New York Times’ Farhad Manjoo explains: “You can be Alibaba or you can be Amazon. You can be Uber or you can be Didi. But you can’t be both.”

2. ICASA Factor

Brazil, Russia, India and China (or the “BRIC economies”) are four major emerging national economies postulated by Goldman Sachs in 2001 to become among the four most dominant economies by the year 2050 and the biggest drivers for future global growth.

But more than 85 per cent of the growth from the BRIC economies came from China.

McKinsey proposes that ICASA — India, China, Africa and Southeast Asia — will become the dominant force, primarily because the greatest growth engine has been urbanisation.

At the same time, these regions present some of the biggest risks to global growth, as they struggle to deal with internal obstacles including sustainable urbanisation, increasing productivity, mobilising domestic resources and deepening regional integration.

3. Resources (Un)limited?

As the world’s population approaches 9 billion, there is growing urbanisation which brings with it a rapidly increasing demand for resources. This includes a dramatic increase in the demand for protein, consumption of oil and gas, fresh water, and synthetic and natural fibre.

Yet advances in analytics, automation, the Internet of Things and material science are reducing resource consumption in other areas.

McKinsey and Bloomberg have estimated advanced mobility systems — including self-driving cars, ride-sharing, and electric vehicles — could yield US$600 billion (NZ$880b) in societal benefits through to 2030, by cutting the costs of traffic congestion (about 1 per cent of GDP globally), road accidents (1.25 million deaths in 2015), and air pollution (health problems like respiratory ailments).

In other sectors, algorithms are helping optimise and predict energy use, enhanced oil recovery is transforming resource production, and innovative new materials are helping reduce resource use. Demand for resources is growing, but innovation and technology provide the opportunity for the world to be more efficient with what we have.

4. Technology Invasion

Technology change is happening continuously. But Grant believes we are underestimating the scale and the pace at which technology is evolving and will shape business. “People don’t quite understand how profound and how long the journey is going to be.

“The ubiquity of technologies and the ability to roll it out globally is making new advances far more impactful than ever before.”

We’re seeing rapid innovation in areas where families of technologies are coming together.

The smartphone brought the touchscreen, applications, CPU, LCD displays, wireless connectivity, and lithium-ion battery technology together with advances in miniaturisation.

The development of the autonomous car is combining video cameras, presence sensors, Radar, Lidar, GPS and CPU technology. Instead of linear step changes, we can expect to see combinations of technologies make the scale of change much more powerful.

5. Customer-to-Business

B2C (business to consumer) and B2B (business to business) have long been commonplace, but digitalisation and new business models are giving consumers the ability to shape goods and services, often receiving free access to what would once have been paid for.

Alibaba’s founder and executive chairman, Jack Ma, declared the start of C2B, or consumer to business, open several years ago.

Rapidly growing Chinese mobile manufacturer Xiaomi uses crowd-sourcing to engage with consumers for fast, first-hand feedback on its products. Grant says Xiaomi is becoming representative of where the business world will need to position itself for the future.

Customers are increasingly dictating the terms of what they need (and what they want) directly to companies and the Internet is providing the ability for this to occur as never before. Consumers have an ever-increasing choice, and companies must make decisions about their product offering and which business models they should use to continue to create value.

6. Ecosystem Battles

Five of the 10 largest companies in the United States are platform-oriented. Airbnb now has four million listings globally, more than the top five hotel brands combined.

The company says “on any given night, two million people are staying in other people’s homes around the world on Airbnb”. Uber might be the world’s largest taxi firm, but it doesn’t own its cars. Neither of these companies existed 10 years ago.

Alibaba — the world’s largest retailer — moved NZ$37b (US$25.3b) worth of stock during its November 11 extravaganza, but doesn’t own warehouses to store the eye-watering quantity of products sold through its platforms.

These platforms offer business models that can be enormously disruptive in the way they shape the world, and are shaking up industries that were immune from significant competition in the past.

7. Dealing with the Dark Side

Cybersecurity has become a trillion-dollar issue. Grant says boards of Fortune 500 companies are now spending about 15 per cent of their boardroom agenda on cybersecurity.

The Herald’s Mood of the Boardroom in September revealed that New Zealand’s executives are highly concerned about the threat, with 67 per cent of respondents now doing significantly more to combat cybercrime and 30 per cent doing more “in a modest way”.

Previous Mood of the Boardroom reports suggest a clear — and rapid — trend: in the 2015 survey, cyber crime rated 5.9/10 in terms of impact on business confidence. Last year it became the top issue at 7.16/10, and this year it sat head and shoulders above other issues, with an impact rating of 7.64/10.

Alongside cybersecurity, McKinsey estimates that 81 per cent of executives worldwide single out geostrategic factors as the top risk to growth.

Examples of the severity geopolitics can have on business include:

  • A 4.5 million shortfall of Russian tourists as a result of the ban on agency tours to Turkey in retaliation for shooting down a Russian warplane.
  • 120,000 tonnes of Norwegian trout and salmon have been banned from Russian markets in retaliation for EU and US sanctions over the Ukraine crisis.
  • 16 per cent of London properties listed online have had their price cut after the UK referendum to leave the European Union.
  • 500 direct daily flights were halted in the Middle East as a result of the diplomatic stand-off between Saudi Arabia, Iran and Qatar.

8. Growth Formula Experiments

There is no shared narrative on why economic growth is stuck. Is the problem in developed economies a supply problem or is it a demand issue?

Monetary easing, a universal basic income, and debt mutualisation are among the suggestions on how to restart growth. There is extraordinary experimentation going on, but no consensus.

Grant says solutions will not be singularly political. They will require business, civil society, and the political arena to come together.

“Some interesting insights are coming from Denmark, Switzerland, Finland, Israel, Singapore… I think New Zealand has a real opportunity to lead on this,” he says.

9. Middle-class Progress

The benefits of globalisation have not been distributed evenly. Alhough globally the middle-class have done well, those in advanced nations have missed out.

This has created a widening of earnings disparity, and has been blamed for the increasingly negative view towards immigration, the status quo, and trade deals that appear to favour the boardroom over the workers.

Much disillusionment has been blamed on, and exploited by, politicians, but trust has become a critical flashpoint that companies must address and build back to ensure long-term, sustainable businesses.

Sources: Presentation by Andrew Grant — A new narrative of progress? Major Macro Trends Shaping our Region — to the 2017 Infinz conference; McKinsey report — The global forces inspiring a new narrative of progress.

Phil Goff extends alliance with Guangzhou, Los Angeles (NZ Herald)

Auckland Mayor Phil Goff has signed an agreement with Guangzhou Mayor Wen Guohui and Los Angeles Deputy Mayor Jeff Gorell to extend the alliance between their three cities for another three years.

The third and final Tripartite Economic Summit took place in Guangzhou last week.
Los Angeles, Guangzhou, and Auckland are sister city triplets, and the past three years has seen the Summit rotate between the three ‘gateway cities’ – previously in Los Angeles in 2015 and Auckland last year.

The 97 Auckland delegates represented 70 businesses including tourism, urban planning and design, bioscience, creative, digital and education.

Auckland Council says this has been the largest ever trade delegation to come out of the city noting that business delegates all paid their own way to attend.

Goff – who signed the free trade deal between New Zealand and China during his period as Labour’s Trade Minister – said , “If like me you’ve been coming here for 30 years, you can appreciate just how quickly, how dramatically, how strongly this country has grown.”

“When I came to Guangzhou in the 1980s I travelled by steam engine on the rail. Today, we see a nation that has progressed more quickly and further than any nation I can recall in history.”

Now, Guangzhou is China’s third largest city, contains seemingly endless skyscrapers, and is considered a manufacturing and commercial hub. Although it may not always be the first city companies have in mind when they consider entering China, it has been consistently ranked as by Forbes magazine as the best commercial city in mainland China when considering ease of doing business, talent, location, and international connectivity. Many delegates left the Summit noting that Guangzhou may be a more accessible market for their business than the more recognised larger markets of Shanghai and Beijing.

New Zealand can tend to overuse the phrase “punching above its weight,” but in this sibling rivalry we indisputably are. Auckland’s population of 1.5 million is dwarfed by Guangzhou’s 14 million. Auckland’s estimated GDP of NZ$93.5 billion could be considered a mere rounding error when compared with Los Angeles’ over US$1 trillion.

Yet Auckland’s 97 delegates were met with around 500 others from Los Angeles and Guangzhou that saw value in making connections and seeking out opportunities to collaborate.

The biomedicine and health forum was an example of these collaborations, co-organised by Auckland’s Maurice Wilkins Centre – New Zealand’s Centre for Research Excellence targeting major human diseases – and the Guangzhou Institute of Biomedicine and Health (GIBH), part of the prestigious Chinese Academy of Sciences.

The Maurice Wilkins Centre has been working closely with its Chinese counterparts since 2012, establishing a joint centre for biomedicine with the Guangzhou institute in 2015. The two research arms are now expanding their relationship with new projects, joint symposia in both countries, and increased exchange of staff and students.

“GIBH is one of China’s leading biomedical research groups and hosts many world leaders in their fields,” says Professor Rod Dunbar, Director of the Maurice Wilkins Centre.

“We are delighted that our colleagues in GIBH see such value in intensifying our collaboration, and look forward to working with them to deliver new treatments through the clinic.”

Businesses took part in business matching, sector specific sessions and forums, and a visit to tech giant Huawei’s nearby Shenzhen campus.

While New Zealand can be blasé about our mayors and local Councillors, in China they are considered almost like celebrities. It is for that reason that many of the Auckland business delegates considered the high-level representation to have helped connect them to significant players within companies that they would not have otherwise had access to. While the primary aim of the Summit is to build connections for the long-term outcomes that can eventuate, ATEED has said that several companies have made excellent progress at this year’s Summit.

The Council will track and report on the business outcomes of the Tripartite Summit where possible.

– Tim McCready travelled to China as a guest of Alibaba.

Infrastructure: Looking at the opportunities for asset recycling (NZ Herald)

Asset recycling enables the Government to boost its available funds by either selling or offering a long-term lease of underutilised, inefficient, or surplus public infrastructure to investors in the private sector.

In exchange for the sale or lease of those assets, the Government can receive a large up-front, lump-sum payment.

Capital received from divestment can be used to revitalise existing assets, or fund new and critical infrastructure needs that might otherwise have been unfunded or funded using more traditional methods such as raising taxes or increasing public debt.

New South Wales
Since 2012, asset recycling has been one of the core principles of Australia’s New South Wales Government property policy.

The NSW Department of Premier and Cabinet says that “real property assets are only held by Government when required, and in the form necessary, to support core government service provision.”

Australia’s asset recycling has extended to the sale or long-term lease of public assets including ports, “poles and wires” electricity assets and its land titles registry, and has reached a combined value of A$53 billion.

Former NSW premier Mike Baird campaigned at the 2015 election on a platform of infrastructure investment, of which the recycling of assets was the method to achieve this.

Baird’s re-election demonstrated that asset recycling and new infrastructure funding mechanisms can be economically effective as well as politically popular – but they take leadership and vision.

A recent report on asset recycling by Property NSW showed overwhelming support for the NSW Government’s policy of recycling property assets to fund infrastructure and better services.

Of those surveyed, 71 per cent said they favoured leasing or selling under-utilised assets over more traditional measures, such as raising taxes or increasing levels of public debt.

Interest from the US
During his visit to Australia earlier this year, United States Vice-President Mike Pence told business leaders that the Trump administration hoped to emulate the Australian model of infrastructure asset recycling as part of the President’s US$1 trillion infrastructure plan.

New York’s LaGuardia Airport was cited by Pence as one example of an asset that had the potential to be redeveloped with the injection of private funds.

LaGuardia is so badly in need of upgrades, expansion and improvements that President Trump has referred to it as “like from a third world country”, contrasting it (and other US airports) to the “incredible airports” in Dubai, Qatar and China.

Upgrading Circular Quay
It is estimated that the number of jobs in the iconic Circular Quay precinct in Sydney will increase by around 4500 in the next 30 years.

The ferry wharves and adjoining promenade were built in the 1940s and are nearing the end of their life. They are also not compliant with the Disability Standards for Accessible Public Transport.

For these reasons, they are considered long overdue for a facelift.

In order to fund the upgrade, Property NSW is divesting commercial assets that are considered not core to service delivery or of long term strategic importance.

This includes the sale of rights to the ground lease rental income at Darling Quarter for 30 years, for an upfront payment of A$192 million ($215m).

The revitalisation of Circular Quay will support new construction jobs, and the upgrades will deliver improved transport services and an enhanced retail offering for workers and visitors, boosting economic growth and tourism to the precinct.

Viewpoint: Michael Barnett, Auckland Chamber of Commerce chief executive
It would easy to be populist and label it privatisation and kill another opportunity for Auckland. The reality is, existing funding models are failing us and we either need to find an innovative response to this or pay the price of a lack of investment in our infrastructure over the last 40 years with low productivity and community frustration.

Old style asset recycling was essentially selling one lot of assets to fund other priorities – this often meant selling an income generating asset to fund another asset that didn’t.

Today it’s about maintaining ownership control and not owning – an example of this could be with Ports of Auckland where the land and the business could be separated or perhaps an environment where an investor of “like values” might take partial ownership of an asset investing say on behalf of a superfund of New Zealanders with only the intention of investment and not for selling on.

Of course, any funds released should then be invested in our infrastructure needs (transport) – the important thing here would be to have a narrative that articulated the benefit to Auckland that may not be in cash but in productivity, employment opportunities and growth.

Viewpoint: Kim Campbell, Employers and Manufacturers chief executive
If we are to have sufficient funds for the development of Auckland’s growing infrastructure needs we will need to find more innovative funding devices.

The community appears allergic to rates, and tolling the roads is consistently blocked by central government. So what’s left?

Recycling of assets is a tried and proven device overseas where city assets are identified as being underused, redundant or inappropriate, and sold. The funds are immediately put to use for items which will increase the city’s overall productivity.

There are many such assets in Auckland. They may have some amenity value, but the benefits may accrue to a small part of the community. This includes shares in airports, golf courses, quarries, forests, transport corridors, water systems and theatres – to name a few.

Their sale is quite legitimate as long as the money is put to more productive use immediately. Often the sold assets become more productive under new owners as we have discovered with the sale of our electrical generation assets. NSW has a long and successful history of this, including Barrangaroo and White Bay.

Viewpoint: Paul Blair, Head of Institutional Banking, BNZ
BNZ is open to talking about ways to solve the big issues facing New Zealand. Countries and governments around the world are facing infrastructure challenges – New Zealand is not alone.

It is important to look at and consider potential ways to solve issues and have those challenging conversations, but any single “tool in the tool box” (like asset recycling) can’t be a silver bullet – multiple approaches and great collaboration is more likely to get a good result.

Governments face ever-rising demands for new and better enabling infrastructure. Asset recycling is one of the tools that have been used successfully in NSW and other overseas jurisdictions. New Zealand has an opportunity to learn from these case studies.

There are many other tools as well (including modern regulation of infrastructure sectors, centralised and specialist procurement, integrated planning, governance and finance, the use of incentives to encourage private sector and local government investment, etc) and a combination of approaches is likely to be needed as these are complex problems.

New Zealand is an extremely open economy. New and modern business models and exponentially expanding technology mean we are highly integrated into global business flows and trends which are changing at an unprecedented rate.

Business and society change is driven by new technology such as artificial intelligence, social media, robotics, data science, 3D printing as well as big macro shifts in demographics, infrastructure pressures and geo-political changes.

All of this change, coupled with government’s relatively limited risk appetite and the complexity of legislating for and regulating this change, means that governments need to look at alternative models to deliver the infrastructure required to meet New Zealand’s social and economic needs.

Infrastructure: Could smart-tracking solve Auckland’s congestion problems? (NZ Herald)

Singapore aims to have the world’s most advanced road pricing system by 2020.

The Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) will make Singapore the first city in the world to include a dynamic distance, time, location, and vehicle type road pricing scheme.

The S$556 million (NZ$566m) project was won by NCS and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Engine System Asia – a price that is less than half the S$1.2 billion submitted by the other qualified bidder, ST Electronics.

The island-wide system will use satellite navigation technology to detect and measure distance travelled, as well as provide real-time traffic for every road user. Drivers will be warned before entering a charged road, giving them the option to divert elsewhere if they prefer.

Parking information obtained from every driver and automatic streetside carparking will mean circling around for a carpark and digging around for cash to buy a parking ticket will be a relic of the past.

In areas where satellite coverage could be weak (including tunnels and beneath viaducts), it is anticipated that signal beacons will be put in place.

Though some say the new system will mean personal cars become less about freedom and more like a “private taxi”, Singapore has long been ahead of the world in road user charging.

In 1998 – when Auckland was suffering from a five-week power outage in the CBD caused by multiple power cables failing – Singapore was rolling out what was then the most sophisticated urban congestion charging system on the planet.

This gantry-based electronic road-pricing system targets roads that are heavily congested, and mostly operate at peak times, applying prices to achieve a minimum “level of service”.

Though some privacy concerns have been raised around the level of surveillance that comes with tracking all road users, there are similar issues with other forms of modern transport.

A push for alternative transport
Despite Singapore moving towards a sophisticated and expensive road pricing system, car ownership is low by global standards. This is largely due to the hefty price of a certificate of entitlement – S$36,000 (NZ$36,790) for cars up to 1600cc – which allows the certificate holder to register, own and use a vehicle in Singapore for a period of 10 years.

When you consider 12 per cent of the small country’s land area is consumed by roads, it is unsurprising that Singapore’s Minister for Infrastructure and Transport, Khaw Boon Wan, has set a target for 75 per cent of trips to take place by public transport by 2030, and 85 per cent by 2050.

Singapore is also significantly boosting its bus fleet, rail network, cycling paths, and the distance of its covered walkways.

Driverless cars are tipped to be a further game-changer. Singapore’s well-maintained roads and contained geography make it an ideal location for autonomous vehicles, expected to offer greater fuel efficiency, reduced road congestion and carbon emissions, and a significant reduction in accidents.

Last year US autonomous vehicle R&D firm nuTonomy ran a limited public trial for the world’s first driverless taxis in Singapore.

Despite one of nuTonomy’s self-driving cars hitting a truck, the trial was considered a success.

The company noted the accident was due to “an extremely rare combination of software anomalies,” and intends to launch a commercial service in Singapore in the next year.

It is therefore not unthinkable that at some point, mass use of driverless cars and public transport could remove the need for congestion charging altogether.

Infrastructure: ICBC hungry for projects (NZ Herald)

ICBC NZ has invested across a range of industry sectors, including financing support to the banking syndication for Wellington’s Transmission Gully motorway, several key pieces of infrastructure in the Christchurch rebuild, and a funding facility for a telecommunications firm.

Although ICBC NZ has been shortlisted several times for recent private-public partnership (PPP) tenders, the bank is yet to secure a successful deal.

“We are the newcomer to this market,” says Karen Hou, chief executive of ICBC NZ. “We haven’t yet led a PPP, but the team has become increasingly experienced and we are becoming stronger in-market.”

“It takes a lot of time and effort to prepare a bid. Our commitment to this shows our dedication to being involved in successful infrastructure projects here.”

ICBC NZ has had positive feedback on its bids. Although the future of PPPs has become less clear with the change in Government, the bank is enthusiastic about future projects and ready to show its capability.

“It is important to have new players in the market,” she says. “Having more expertise, funding sources and competition is crucial for long-term, sustainable growth.”

ICBC head office has signalled the significance it places in investing in New Zealand.

The bank’s new global chairman, Yi Huiman, visited New Zealand as part of his first international trip last year, meeting with the Government to discuss New Zealand’s infrastructure investment needs.

“The new board is two years old, and three of the most senior members – chairman of the board, CEO, and chairman of the supervisory board – have already come to New Zealand,” says Hou. “That is unprecedented, and demonstrates that they are very supportive of ICBC’s activity here.”

One Belt One Road
China’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative aims to be the world’s biggest infrastructure project, and encourages Chinese companies to implement infrastructure programmes that help to integrate Asia, Europe, and Africa.

Chinese President Xi Jinping said of OBOR: “The initiative aims to promote orderly and free flow of economic factors, highly efficient allocation of resources and deep integration of markets by enhancing connectivity of Asian, European and African continents and their adjacent seas.”

Previously, he said: “the programmes of development will be open and inclusive, not exclusive. They will be a real chorus comprising all countries along the routes, not a solo for China itself.”

Hou says ICBC reflects President Xi’s importance placed on investment in global infrastructure – the bank is present in 18 countries along the Belt and Road, loaning US$78.6 billion (NZ$113b) against 288 projects.

New Zealand is at one end of the economic corridor, stretching from the South Pacific through Southeast Asia and into Europe.

Though there is demand for infrastructure projects in New Zealand, Hou says she wishes there were more opportunities available.

“Although there are currently not many PPP projects available for investment, we hope there will be more launched soon,” she says.

“There is a huge demand for further infrastructure in New Zealand, but New Zealand is short of the capital, skilled labour and quick decision-making.”

Hou sees this as a great opportunity for both countries. New Zealand can provide projects and investment opportunities, while China brings experience and expertise across a range of infrastructure classes – bridges, railways, motorways, schools, power and water – along with capital.

Hou says ICBC has around six million corporate customers in China. The bank has a very robust credit approval system, knows their background, and understands their involvement in global projects.

“Many corporate investors are showing increased interest in investment opportunities in the New Zealand market from China, Asia, and the rest of the world,” says Hou.

“When they come to this market, we help to bridge the understanding, knowledge and information gap between the two countries.

“When our customers first come here they always consult us on the current market situation. Because of our intimate understanding of both sides, we have an unparalleled advantage.”

Hou says the bank’s experience with infrastructure projects across many countries ensures it can identify and select the best Chinese partners.

“The bank wants to deliver successful projects, so it is important to us that we select those companies that have significant global experience on major projects, as well as a good attitude towards environmental protection.”

Leading in clean energy and green investment
ICBC has become a leader in supporting clean energy and environmental infrastructure, with the bank providing funding globally in projects including hydroelectric, wind, geothermal, and solar.

“People might not have a good impression of China’s environmental concern,” says Karen Hou, chief executive of ICBC NZ. “But that is in the past. Nowadays China is totally different, highly developed, and people’s ideas have totally changed. We want environmental protection, and a better life.”

The bank has now recently announced its One Belt One Road Green Climate Bond that will be listed in a new market known as the Luxembourg Green Exchange (LGX).

The use of proceeds for this bond will be dedicated to ICBC’s global financing and refinancing of eligible green assets in renewable energy, low carbon and low emission transportation, energy efficiency, and sustainable water resources management in areas key to the OBOR initiative.

ICBC is the first Chinese bank with a “Green Bond Framework” aligned to both international and Chinese green standards.

It is also the first Chinese bank to receive a “Dark Green” second opinion by the Oslo-based Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research.

Infrastructure: A chat with Auckland Mayor Phil Goff (NZ Herald)

Mayor of Auckland Phil Goff says the incoming Labour-NZ First coalition Government offers a number of advantages for Auckland.

“First, it gives us access to a regional fuel tax which enables us to meet the cost of the new investment that we need to make in transport.

“Secondly, it has a strong commitment to light rail across the Auckland isthmus, to the airport, and ultimately beyond that. As I go around the city, probably the number one priority that most people express to me in terms of major new infrastructure is that we can’t be the gateway city to New Zealand for visitors and have gridlock getting from the airport to hotels in the CBD – that’s critical.

“Thirdly, meeting the housing crisis in Auckland. Clearly, the commitment to 10,000 affordable houses a year would make a huge difference to the crisis that Auckland is undergoing.

“One of the things I have studied in London – and Transport for London have strongly advocated this – when you’re building intensive housing, you need to build it around transport arterial routes and transport hubs.

“When you create something like a light rail system, you can intensify the housing development along that system. There will be value uplift from the construction of that infrastructure, but most importantly houses are built so people can get from where they live to where they work quickly and efficiently.

“You can’t solve the transport problem and the housing problem in isolation. You must do it through projects that meet the needs of both.

“I had a very good working relationship with Bill English. I want to pay tribute to him for being a Prime Minister who was easy to work with, professional, and evidence driven. We worked together to tackle the problems that Auckland was facing. He can be proud of his contribution to New Zealand.”

On Road Pricing
Goff says the Singapore system will be the most advanced congestion charging system there is. But it has been very complex and expensive to implement.

“My view has always been – particularly when you’re using high tech applications – you should buy off the shelf and not necessarily lead them, because there will be a lot of challenges that need to be met and problems to be ironed out before you can get them to work effectively.

“We’ve got some distance to go to persuade the public that congestion charging is the right way to approach the problem of both funding and reducing congestion. I have no doubt that demand management will have big advantages in terms of how you can influence commuter behaviour.

“I’ve been in discussions with Transport for London, who say that the congestion charging in London has worked beyond all expectations. It raises about £150m per year – but more importantly than that – it has stabilised the level of vehicles coming into the city and reduced congestion. Having demand management as a form of road pricing is what we should be ultimately aiming for.

“We’ve got quite a lot of work to put into that, not only in terms of socialising the idea with the public, but also in terms of what system might work most effectively and how it could be introduced in an economic way. We’ll be a follower on that and not a leader. We will get a report later this year from the study commissioned by the outgoing government with the council, but I think we need to take steps in the interim for revenue to fund the transport infrastructure that a city growing like Auckland needs.

“My preference is to have an interim road pricing system based on a fuel tax. If the government is prepared to enable that, we will take responsibility to put it in place. We’re faced with a $5.9b deficit in meeting the cost of the Auckland Transport Alignment Project. The outgoing government said it would meet the most significant share of that, but Auckland would also have to pay a share. We need a source of revenue to do that.

“A road pricing system is far better than a general rating system. It needs to be hypothecated – that is the money needs to be set aside solely for the purpose of improving our transport infrastructure, and the decision on the expenditure of the money raised needs to be made jointly between council and central government.

“For the immediate future, having a fuel tax makes a lot of sense. While we are working through the process of what might be the most effective form of demand management or congestion charging, the regional fuel tax would enable us to get on and implement some of the infrastructure that we need for Auckland to avoid worsening congestion and gridlock closing the city down.”

http://bit.ly/TimMcCreadyDonaldTrumpMood

Tim McCready

The “Trump factor” is one of the major issues impacting chief executives’ confidence in the global economy.

In last year’s Mood of the Boardroom survey – held just over a month before the US presidential elections – CEOs rated the election outcome as their third greatest international concern impacting on business confidence.

A year on, they see Donald Trump’s presidency and its resultant political instability as taking the edge off a generally positive outlook. CEOs rated the “Trump factor” their second highest international concern at 6.47/10 with 10 saying they were “extremely concerned” about its effect on political instability.

“The Trump regime has amplified geopolitical instability considerably,” said Rob Cameron, founder of merchant bankers Cameron Partners. “Global political outcomes are more unpredictable.”

“His performance is so poor we can only hope for impeachment,” added a law firm head.

Despite the negativity towards the president, 80 per cent of those surveyed say their view of Trump’s performance won’t affect their own company’s intentions with the United States:

“Operating in the US isn’t easy, regardless of who is in power,” said a tourism boss. “The domestic economy actually feels very strong in the US from a business operating perspective.”

“It remains a key market for us, no matter the presidency. Therefore, we remain committed to the United States,” added Don Braid, Mainfreight’s group managing director.

Others cited the ability for the US Congress to moderate the actions of the President as offering reassurance:

“Fortunately, in the United States, the founding fathers designed a constitution with checks and balances. Despite the concerns about Trump gaining a lot of media attention, his ability to implement action is limited,” explained a major law firm partner.

“He is mercifully restrained by the constitution and the checks and balances in the system,” said Kate McKenzie, Chorus CEO.

Several executives in the real estate industry thought Trump was having a positive impact on their business, as he unintentionally makes New Zealand a more appealing environment:

“As more Americans look to diversify investment and lifestyle outside the US, New Zealand’s clean green image and welcoming economic and political environment makes us a favoured destination,” said one real estate chief executive.

Another commented: “Trump’s irrational behaviour makes New Zealand’s isolation one of our greatest strengths.”

Neil Paviour-Smith, managing director of Forsyth Barr thinks Trump will help New Zealand businesses to bolster its trade in other markets. “While the New Zealand economy is continuing its expansionary phase, we are seeing more synchronised growth globally – including former laggards Japan and the EU – despite a lot of distraction from geopolitical-related activities.”

Much of the comment was pungent. Simplicity’s Sam Stubbs predicts – “as the ultimate apprentice in the ultimate game show, he will be, ultimately, fired.”

Closer to home there was some criticism of New Zealand businessman Chris Liddell – a former chief financial officer at Microsoft and General Motors – who heads Trump’s strategic development group focusing on priority projects and liaison with the private sector.

“Trump is an absolute tosser! What is Chris Liddell doing there?” questioned Local Government Funding Agency chairman Craig Stobo.

Another added: “Though in talking with a prominent Kiwi in the White House, he believes Trump is a very clever person who knows business and will succeed – as long as he gives up the stupid tweeting and mind games over people.”

Though Liddell is still in the White House, the turmoil and unprecedented staff turnover in Washington and delays in filling key jobs in US Government departments, has been noted.

“A disastrous lack of leadership is leaving the United States increasingly rudderless,” said Beca’s Greg Lowe.

“Trump is worse than I thought he was going to be,” added a real estate executive.

The Trump administration has seen a number of high-profile staff leave the White House.

Recent departures include Sebastian Gorka, deputy assistant to Trump; chief strategist Steve Bannon; communications director Anthony Scaramucci – dismissed after only 11 days in the job – and chief of staff Reince Priebus.

But the new chief of staff, former marine general John Kelly, is said to be bringing discipline to the show.

Protectionism rears its head
One of Trump’s first actions as president was to throw out the TPP agreement which New Zealand signed in Auckland in February 2016 along with 11 other nations. During the 2016 presidential campaign, Trump frequently criticised TPP – labelling it “horrible,” a “bad deal,” and a “death blow for American workers”.

His new “America First” strategy has had a wide impact on US involvement in regional and multilateral trade agreements. The president favours individual deals on the proviso they can be quickly terminated in 30 days “if somebody misbehaves.”

He has recently stepped up calls for a more protectionist stance. Dismissing some of his top staffers as globalists, he has demanded a plan be drawn up to impose tariffs to remove China’s “unfair advantage” displayed by its trade surplus with the United States. “There is no dodging it, the world is more fearful and feels (but may not be yet) more protectionist,” says a senior player in the investment community.

“The move towards protectionism causes one to be more cautious and concerned about the outlook,” says Cathy Quinn, partner and former chair at MinterEllisonRuddWatts.

The protectionist stance also brings with it the possibility of border taxes, which some congressional Republicans have put forward to support Trump’s commitment to increase American competitiveness and prevent jobs shifting overseas.

This would mean companies could no longer deduct the cost of imports, creating strong incentives to retain and relocate supply chains and research to the United States. But there are fears this could spark a trade war, as countries move away from the US and source products and materials elsewhere.

Without a detailed proposal for border taxes, it is impossible to comment on the specifics. But chief executive respondents to the Herald survey indicated they are reasonably concerned about potential risks to exporters trading with the United States, rating this at 5.2/10.

“Implementation of the Border Adjustment Tax poses a very serious risk to New Zealand’s wine exports to the United States – our biggest export market – and will undoubtedly be damaging to the industry,” says Erica Crawford, founder and managing principal of Loveblock Wines.

Threat of nuclear war
There is no doubt the threat of nuclear war has escalated considerably since Trump became president.

Earlier this month, Pyongyang said it had successfully trialled a hydrogen bomb that could be loaded onto a long-range missile.

North Korean state television said the trial, which was ordered by leader Kim Jong-un was a “perfect success” and a “very meaningful step in completing the national nuclear weapons programme.” It received international condemnation – including from New Zealand’s Foreign Minister Gerry Brownlee, who called the test “utterly deplorable.”

As is customary, Trump responded by tweet: “North Korea is a rogue nation which has become a great threat and embarrassment to China, which is trying to help but with little success.”

This was followed by: “South Korea is finding, as I have told them, that their talk of appeasement with North Korea will not work, they only understand one thing!”

Trump didn’t expand on what that “one thing” might be, but at an unrelated event last month he promised to inflict “fire and fury like the world has never seen” upon the totalitarian state if it acted in a hostile manner.

It is not surprising then, that the potential for nuclear war in Asia was considered by CEOs to be of reasonable concern, rating at 5.9/10.

“North Korea is a serious issue, which would have come to a head with or without Trump. The problem is Kim Jong-un can’t be fired, only fired upon. This is not reality TV,” said Simplicity’s Stubbs.

The Trump Factor
CEOs rated President Trump’s policy initiatives and actions on a 1 to 5 scale (where 1= not impressive and 5= very impressive).

  • Implementing his campaign agenda including a radical cut to the corporate income tax to 15 per cent: 1.51/5
  • Trump’s call for an “America First” trade policy with a focus on bilateral trade deals: 1.31/5
  • Threats of a nuclear strike on North Korea: 1.30/5
  • United States withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord: 1.24/5
  • Dealing with Russian security concerns: 1.24/5