“It may be an attractive political football… but the way that debate has played out is reflective of something that I am increasingly concerned about in New Zealand: a developing division in the political discourse that is artificially divided in a way similar to what we have seen play out recently overseas.”

We’re about where we should be in the political cycle

Recent political polls have shown Labour and National roughly equal. When asked about polling in terms of the current electoral cycle, Wilson thinks it is “about where it should be. If things weren’t at a reasonably even balance now, you would be wondering what was going wrong, really.”

He says, to some extent, our perception of party polling has been shifted by the 2020 election, where for the first time since MMP was introduced in 1996 a party won enough seats to govern alone, with Labour receiving 50 per cent of the party vote.

“We do need to put that down to being a Covid election,” he says.

“It was a kind of ‘wartime’ election, and I think everyone who observes politics knew that it was going to come with challenges having that level of mandate, along with a larger caucus.”

Wilson recognises the past three years have felt long and stressful, particularly for those with responsibilities to keep businesses functioning and people employed. He says we are at a real crunch time — the global economy is impacting New Zealand’s economy, and along with inflation and the fall in house prices, is making people nervous and will likely set the scene for next year’s election.

“Government needs to be seen to be delivering on some of those big ideas and converting them into something that feels like a difference for an electorate that is quite grouchy.”

Wilson says it will be essential for Government to make itself look fresh again because there is an extent to which the public gets tired of seeing the same people over and over again.

“We have had five years now of a Government that has been quite tightly controlled by a small group of Ministers who have a lot of responsibility, who I am sure are just as tired as the rest of us.

“There is only so much you can send Chris Hipkins and Megan Woods in to fix. How does the Government put a fresh bench forward to make the case they should have another three years?”

The head of an investment company says “there has been a ‘whites only’ policy to date, and that needs to change”.

A chair says they agree with co-governance in principle, but it does not need to be in every domain. “Māori values, and in fact most things Māori are undergoing a renaissance,” they say. “Our Māori history is common to all New Zealanders.”

But a further 41 per cent of respondents believe increased co-governance is “anti-democratic”.

“I will not support two votes for one ethnicity in any election process,” says Precinct Property chair Craig Stobo.

The head of a design firm says co-governance is “totally against all democratic principles — a reversal to dark days.”

An investment banker shares a similar sentiment. “It is not only anti-democratic, it is unnecessary and an inefficient way to address the inequities trying to be addressed.”

“Having dedicated Māori seats on local councils makes sense,” says a top chair. “But in governance, where Māori have an equal say on important matters, is a step too far for me.”

“Have a referendum and let’s see what Kiwis want,” says the head of an energy company.

What are the politicians talking about here?

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern maintains her Government has been clear about where it would implement co-governance, such as the establishment of Te Aka Whai Ora (the Māori Health Authority) to improve indigenous health by working in partnership with the new centralised health agency Te Whatu Ora Health New Zealand.

“Health outcomes for Māori are worse in this country, Māori die younger in this country,” Ardern has said.

“I think we all acknowledge that the way we’ve been operating in our health system hasn’t been serving Māori well.”

But the extent of co-governance overlaid on the Government’s Three Waters plan to amalgamate local water assets into four big new regional authorities has proved divisive.

The new entities will be represented by regional representative groups comprising 50 per cent local council members and 50 per cent from iwi. Mana whenua will have oversight over the boards charged with operational management, but no operational authority.

This has already set the scene for co-governance to be a major election issue in 2022 with Act and New Zealand First highly critical of initiatives taken by a majority Labour Government which were not put up as policy at the 2020 election.

Act Party leader David Seymour said a referendum on co-governance would be a bottom line if forming a Government with National.

He said the Treaty of Waitangi was not a partnership and co-governance arrangements should not be viewed as a necessary extension of that and have warned co-governance will end liberal democracy in New Zealand.

However, National leader Christopher Luxon had ruled out a referendum for now: “We’re not in any place to have a referendum right now because the bottom line is we’re not clear what we’re talking about with respect to co-governance.”